Work

Navigating India’s low-carbon development futures: an interpretive assessment of model scenarios

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: As India pursues economic opportunities alongside undertaking climate actions, its low-carbon development policymaking is informed by an expanding ecosystem of emissions-economy modelling studies. In India’s rapidly changing economic context, it is important to assess whether and how such studies represent real development contexts facing policymakers. To explore this question, this paper examines the results and implications of eight emissions-economy modelling studies that offer policy guidance for India. By highlighting areas where findings converge and diverge, it draws out aggregated insights relevant to six of India’s policy priorities. It finds that (1) studies do not explore the full range of India’s future growth and urbanisation possibilities. (2) The discourse on the energy transition inadequately addresses demand-side approaches and alternative patterns of energy demand. (3) The projected emissions trajectories can impact the carbon budget as much as the peaking year can, and can have a bigger impact on cumulative emissions than even the choice of net-zero year. (4) Required investments are inversely related with cumulative emissions, though investment patterns can look different for similar emissions trajectories. (5) Discussions on energy security are limited, and require greater consideration of patterns of growth that emphasise domestic manufacturing. (6) While decarbonisation can have positive employment impacts, there is no consensus about their scale. Contextualising these findings, the paper concludes that while modelling studies usefully explore emissions trends and the supply side of the energy transition, there is a parallel need for better exploration of India’s possible economic growth pathways, energy demand trends, investments, and employment and energy security impacts. Given that India is growing rapidly and has not yet locked into a specific development pathway, greater attention to future possible growth pathways will yield enhanced insights. This will hinge upon deeper analysis across more comprehensive modelling efforts, in combination with qualitative explorations of their implications.

Source: Environmental Research Letters

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8318

Authors: Aman Srivastava, Easwaran J Narassimhan, Navroz K Dubash

Institutions: Sustainable Futures Collaborative, Tufts University, Princeton University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Policy and Economics

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Decent work and economic growth, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,045