Integrating Urban Master Plan Scenarios with Climate Projections to Model Future Urban Heat Island Dynamics in Erbil, Iraq
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The current study focuses on the trends of LST in Erbil city in Iraq under urban development and climate change using remote sensing analysis. Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS, and Landsat 9 data were obtained in 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2024 and processed using ArcGIS Pro, Google Earth Engine, and ERDAS Imagine. The land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps were created based on the supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood classifier, with overall accuracy ranging from 91.4% to 94.7%. Results showed that built-up area increased from 19.42% in 2009 to 29.04% in 2024, and barren land decreased from 79.40% to 66.91%. Furthermore, the highest maximum LST increased from 51°C in 2009 to 54.3°C in 2024, whereas UHI intensity was found to be 22.5°C in 2019. According to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, LST is forecasted to become 55.0°C and 56.7°C in 2050, respectively. A mitigation scenario with the implementation of Erbil Green Belt master plan (165.35 km² with 7.2 million olive and pistachio trees) was investigated, leading to an increment in the NDVI to 0.5 and a decrease in the temperature to -2.5°C and -0.4°C in the Green Belt and urban zones, respectively.
Language: English
Topic: Urban Heat Island Mitigation
Subfield: Environmental Engineering
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7166183084