Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The poultry industry plays an important role in food security and economic stability in Indonesia, with eggs serving as one of the main sources of animal protein. This study aims to analyze the population dynamics and egg production of a single-cohort layer chicken population at UD Faoji Farm, Kembangan–Bukateja, Indoneisa, using the Lefkovitch matrix model. The population was classified into three productivity-based stages: young layers, productive layers, and older layers. Primary data were obtained from historical farm records and interviews, including initial population size, weekly surviving population, mortality, and egg production data from week 16 to week 100 (October 2023–June 2025). The model was constructed using stage-specific survival probabilities and transition probabilities to form a transition matrix for population projection. The results show that the young-layer population declined rapidly due to a high transition rate into the productive stage, while the productive-layer stage reached peak population around 35 weeks of age before gradually declining. Meanwhile, the older-layer stage continuously increased and eventually dominated the total population. Population projection results indicate a gradual decrease in the total population from 3,675 to 3,353 chickens by the end of the observation period. Furthermore, dominant eigenvalue analysis produced , indicating a slow long-term population decline of approximately 0.11% per week. Despite this decline, the value being close to 1 reflects efficient mortality management and stable production performance. The Lefkovitch matrix model therefore provides an effective quantitative framework for evaluating population dynamics and supporting sustainable production management in layer chicken farming. Keywords: Lefkovitch matrix, stage-structured model, layer chicken, population dynamics, egg production, dominant eigenvalue
Institution: Diponegoro University
Language: English
Subfield: Applied Mathematics
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7166300757