A BIM-Based Framework for Urban Seismic Risk Management Using Earthquake Nowcasting: The Case of Shiraz City, Iran
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Urban resilience against earthquakes requires advanced analytical frameworks capable of integrating BIM-based seismic risk assessment with intelligent infrastructure management systems. This study proposes a Building Information Modeling (BIM)-based framework for urban seismic risk management using earthquake nowcasting techniques in Shiraz City, southern Zagros region, Iran. The nowcasting method, based on the concept of natural time, evaluates the current stage of the earthquake cycle by analyzing the frequency of small earthquakes occurring between consecutive large seismic events. Earthquake data obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) catalog for the period 1963–2024 were analyzed within radii of 200, 250, 300, and 350 km around Shiraz. The Earthquake Potential Score (EPS) was calculated for earthquakes with magnitudes M λ ≥ 5.5 and M λ ≥ 6 to estimate the present seismic hazard condition of the region. The results indicate relatively high EPS values for Shiraz, suggesting significant progression through the regional seismic cycle. The highest EPS values approached 96–97% for larger analysis radii. The proposed framework demonstrates how seismic nowcasting outputs can support BIM-driven urban risk assessment, infrastructure resilience planning, and disaster preparedness strategies. Integrating earthquake nowcasting data into BIM environments can improve decision-making processes for emergency management, urban planning, and resilient infrastructure development in earthquake-prone metropolitan regions such as Shiraz.
Language: English
Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7166328674
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