Consumption Dynamics and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Türkiye: An Empirical Analysis Using the Household Card Payment Index
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This study examines the correlation between the household card payment index and the consumer confidence index, consumer price index, unemployment rate, and housing price index in Turkey. The ARDL bounds testing approach was employed in the study utilizing monthly data from April 2015 to December 2024, analyzing the long-term cointegration relationship and short-term dynamics among the variables. The literature analysis demonstrates that consumption habits correlate with factors such as income, general price level, exchange rate, and consumer confidence; nonetheless, it notes a scarcity of empirical studies concentrating on the household card payment index. The mathematical findings indicate that a 1% rise in the consumer confidence index results in a 0.48% increase in household card payments; a 1% increase in the unemployment rate corresponds to a 0.58% decline; a 1% increase in the CPI leads to a 1.29% increase; and a 1% increase in the housing price index results in a 1.37% decrease in household card payments. This study enhances comprehension of the responsiveness of consumer patterns to macroeconomic variables and offers a contemporary evaluation for policymakers.
Author: Mehmet Mert Türk
Institution: Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi
Language: Turkish
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7166557004