Work

Managing scientific uncertainty in operational earthquake forecasting: A Delphi-mix approach to expert consensus and risk governance in Italy

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) represents the state-of-the-art in time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. However, its implementation in Italy remains a wicked challenge, hindered by institutional resistance and the complex legacy of the L'Aquila trial. This study employs an innovative Delphi-Mix approach to elicit institutional judgment from the expert panel at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Through sequential rounds of qualitative exploration, quantitative evaluation, and S.W.O.T. (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis, the research maps consensus on OEF models and identifies cognitive biases affecting risk communication. Findings reveal a profound divergence between high scientific confidence in models and a state of defensive science regarding public communication. Fear of legal liability and internal polarization act as primary paralyzing factors. Bridging the science-policy gap requires transitioning toward user-centered communication strategies that prioritize actionable visual products. We propose an OEF Action Agenda to move from a subjective panelist-judgment model to a structured risk governance framework. By framing OEF as social learning, this research provides a roadmap to de-individualize responsibility, shifting the burden from single scientists to transparent, institutionalized protocols. This shift is essential to transform OEF into a functional public service for disaster risk reduction.

Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106300