Predicting the past: Consequence analysis during fire & explosion investigations
Year: 2026
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Effective fire and explosion investigations increasingly rely on consequence analysis, yet these empirical models introduce significant aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Applying them to post-incident analysis requires careful data selection, model validation, and interpretation of results as bounded ranges rather than single values (e.g., overpressure, blast radius, heat release rate). This presentation outlines a structured methodology for integrating consequence analysis into NFPA 921–based investigations, emphasizing uncertainty management and compliance considerations. Case studies will be presented demonstrating how this approach supports accurate incident reconstruction and informed engineering judgments.
Authors: Alejandro Jimenez, Zeynep Ayla
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7167977611