Green Growth in Arab Countries: A Predictive Analysis Based on Economic Complexity and Macroeconomic Indicators Using the XGBoost Machine Learning Algorithm
Year: 2026
Type: book-chapter
Abstract: This study examines how trade and research complexity predict Arab green growth trajectories.A comprehensive framework of institutional, environmental, and macroeconomic indicators frames this analysis.A composite green growth index (GGI) was created using the directional distance function to monitor GDP and undesirable outputs (carbon emissions and energy intensity) from 2000 to 2022.The dataset includes 13 oil-dependent, diversified emerging, and structurally constrained Arab countries.The model uses the Trade Complexity Index (TCI) and Research Complexity Index (RCI) and 12 control variables to assess institutional and governance, development and human capital, market and economic structure, innovation and technological readiness, energy composition and sustainability, environmental pressures, and external influences.XGBoost, optimized via Bayesian hyperparameter tuning, is used in the systematic design to capture nonlinear relationships and interaction effects across multidimensional and heterogeneous data.Gain was used to determine each factor's predictive performance contribution.The RCI predicted green growth best, followed by the Anti-Corruption Index (CC) and TCI.This analysis shows the importance of national innovation capacity, institutional integrity, and trade's technological content.Traditional environmental indicators like carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy use were less predictive, suggesting that structural and institutional factors drive green growth in Arab economies more than direct environmental interventions.These findings suggest replacing narrow environmental strategies with integrated policy frameworks that link innovation, trade development, and institutional reform to environmental goals.
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W7202045201