Work

Integrated assessment of current and future soil erosion losses in the Nekor watershed (Northern Morocco) using EPM modeling, geomorphometric analysis, and climate change scenarios

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Soil erosion by water is a critical environmental risk that is intensified by climate change, particularly in Mediterranean and semi-arid regions. This study addresses a significant gap in regional-scale erosion assessments, particularly in the North African context where rigorous field-based model validation is often lacking. By integrating the Erosion Potential Model (EPM) with detailed geomorphometric analysis and high-resolution climate projections from CMIP6 based on SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios to evaluate soil erosion risk in the Nekor watershed, northern Morocco. The EPM was carefully calibrated and validated using an extensive field-based gully inventory and morphometric indicators, ensuring high predictive accuracy, confirmed by ROC-AUC analysis (AUC = 0.77). Current erosion rates already exceed the tolerable threshold, with an average annual soil loss surpassing 80 t/ha/year. This indicates severe land degradation, which is especially pronounced in southern and southwestern sub-watersheds due to steep slopes, fragile lithology, and sparse vegetation. Future projections indicate a further increase in soil loss by 3.28% under SSP2–4.5 and 4.84% under SSP5–8.5 by 2040, highlighting worsening degradation risks. This study's novel combination of modeling and climate scenarios provides actionable insights into spatially explicit erosion patterns under climate change. The findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable and climate-adapted soil conservation measures such as reforestation, check dams, and optimized land-use strategies to protect soil resources and maintain the functionality of the Ben Abdelkarim El Khattabi dam.

Source: Scientific African

DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03563