Work

Deconstructing the Yield Gap: Behavioral Risk Attitudes and Maize Productivity in Northwestern Ethiopia

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Understanding farmers’ risk attitudes is essential for improving agricultural productivity and resilience, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia. Despite its importance, the role of behavioral factors in shaping farm production decisions remains insufficiently explored in smallholder maize systems. This study aimed to examine how farmers’ risk attitudes influence maize production and to identify the key factors determining both risk behavior and production outcomes in the Awi Zone of Northwestern Ethiopia. Data were collected from 343 maize‐producing households. The study employed the endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to simultaneously analyze the determinants of farmers’ risk attitudes and their impact on maize production. The average treatment effect was used to estimate differences in production outcomes between risk‐taking and risk‐averse farmers. The results show that maize production is influenced by different factors depending on farmers’ risk attitudes. For risk‐taking farmers, extension contact, landholding size, oxen labor, and education significantly affect production, whereas for risk‐averse farmers, farm income, improved seed, UREA fertilizer, and oxen labor are key determinants. Education level, land ownership, and social group membership significantly influence farmers’ risk attitudes. The findings reveal that risk‐averse behavior is associated with higher maize productivity compared to risk‐taking behavior. Consistent with the descriptive results, risk‐averse farmers achieved higher average maize yields than risk takers. Specifically, maize yield would increase by 3.551 quintals ha −1 (~16%) when farmers adopt risk‐averse behavior, while the potential gains under the counterfactual scenario are even larger (ATU = 8.009; 52%). Overall, the results indicate that risk attitudes play a significant role in shaping agricultural production outcomes. The study underscores the importance of integrating behavioral factors into agricultural policy and development interventions. Promoting informed and effective risk management strategies among smallholder farmers could enhance productivity and strengthen resilience. These findings offer useful implications for designing targeted policies that account for farmers’ behavioral heterogeneity in Ethiopia.

Source: Advances in Agriculture

DOI: 10.1155/aia/4030361

Authors: Yohannes Girma, Berhanu Kuma, Amsalu Bedemo, Abera Ayalew

Institutions: Injibara University, Wolaita Sodo University, Ethiopian Civil Service University

Language: English

Topic: Agricultural risk and resilience

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Zero hunger, Decent work and economic growth, No poverty

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $860