Performance and Resilience of Major versus Minor Crops in Nigeria's Certified Seed Industry: Implications for Crop Diversification and Food Security (2007-2025)
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Nigeria's certified seed industry is structurally concentrated.Over the 2007-2025 period, maize and rice alone accounted for an average of 87.7 percent of total annual certified seed production, leaving eight other crop species to compete for the remaining share.Analysis of official time-series data from the National Agricultural Seeds Council (NASC) reveals a system that expanded dramatically between 2007 and 2014 from 10,122 metric tons to 178,057 metric tons before contracting sharply during the 2015-2017 economic recession.While major crops recovered modestly in volume, minor crops such as cowpea, groundnut, millet, and soybean posted superior compound annual growth rates in the recovery period (17 -40 percent), and the minor crop share of total certified seed production rose from 4.4 percent in 2017 to 26.3 percent by 2025.Concentration indices confirm a longrun dominance bias: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index averaged above 3,700 across the study period, though it has declined toward 2,916 in 2025, signalling an incipient diversification trend.The Shannon Diversity Index similarly trended upward after 2017.Wheat recorded exceptional post-recession volume growth driven by domestic policy incentives, while cotton experienced a structural collapse from which it has not recovered.The findings underscore the risks of over-reliance on a two-crop seed system, highlight the untapped potential of leguminous and nutrient-dense minor crops for nutrition security and climate adaptation, and provide an empirical basis for recalibrated investment priorities in the 2025-2030 national agricultural planning cycle.
Institution: The Federal Polytechnic Offa
Language: English
Domain: Life Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W7202352912