BOT-75: Ultra‑High‑Rigor Protocol for Distant Weather Influence
Year: 2026
Type: conference-abstract
Abstract: Protocol BOT-75 implements the unified metrological framework of Protocol 9.0 to test the claimed phenomenon of distant weather influence – the alleged ability of a person or group (the "intenders") to affect meteorological conditions (e.g., precipitation, temperature, wind) in a pre‑defined geographic region through intention, prayer, or ritual, without physical intervention. The primary observable is the change in daily precipitation amount (or other weather variables) during active intention days, compared to control days (no intention) over a long‑term, randomised, double‑blind observational study. The experimental design includes a fixed geographic region (e.g., a defined area of 100×100 km), daily randomisation of intention days (active vs. control, using a cryptographically secure RNG), objective weather data from ground‑based stations and satellite products (e.g., ERA5 reanalysis), comprehensive environmental monitoring (atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity, wind), trap conditions (the intenders are told to "intend" but the target region is a different, non‑active area), sham conditions (the intenders are told to "intend" but are actually resting), positive controls (known seasonal cycles, to validate the sensitivity of the analysis), and preregistered statistical analyses. The protocol mandates a pilot phase to calibrate the weather data, establish baseline variability, and test the analytical pipeline. The primary analysis uses a Linear Mixed Model (LMM) comparing weather variables between active and control days, with α = 0.025 (two‑tailed) and power ≥ 0.90 for a very small effect (Cohen's d ≥ 0.05). The sample size is N = 500 active days and 500 control days (baseline, with adaptive increase to N = 1,000 each if pilot shows high variability). Statistical analyses are preregistered, include Bayesian inference (BF₁₀), permutation tests, and multiverse robustness checks (≥70% of 12 forks). The aim is to detect a reproducible weather influence effect or to establish an upper bound on the effect size with unprecedented rigor.
Author: Streltsov, Vadim
Language: English
Subfield: Social Psychology
Field: Psychology
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7203549865