Supplementary Files for (The Gender Chores Gap Does Not Predict Fertility: A 94-Country Replication of Goldin (2026))
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: A long line of demographic research argues that low fertility in rich countries reflects the gender division of domestic labor, and a prominent recent revival, Claudia Goldin’s mismatch working paper (NBER w35425, 2026) and its viral Figure 12, makes the case with a behavioral measure: the gender gap in hours of unpaid domestic and care work (UN SDG indicator 5.4.1). We provide the first global cross-national test of that measure as a fertility predictor, on all 94 countries with comparable time-use data. Goldin’s negative correlation reproduces on her 22 nations (r = −0.52), but it collapses across the full OECD (r = +0.06) and reverses across all countries (r = +0.26), while updating the fertility vintage alone barely moves it (r = −0.45), so the fragility is sample selection, not stale data. In a competing-predictors battery the gap loses all explanatory power once income is controlled and is indistinguishable from zero in a full model (β = −0.05, p = 0.63, 95% CI [−0.27, +0.16]). The design detects a Goldin-sized effect (minimum detectable effect about β = 0.30) while remaining compatible with small residual associations. Three other gender measures behave the same way: the WEF Global Gender Gap Index and the UNDP Gender Social Norms Index both go null once development is controlled, and the UNDP Gender Inequality Index appears to survive only because it embeds the adolescent birth rate, a component mechanically tied to fertility. None of the four retains an independent association with fertility once development and the demographic transition are held constant. The viral chart is a new face on the old gender-equality and fertility paradox: the measure is new, the confound is old. Our cross-sectional design does not test Goldin’s within-country model of individual reproductive decisions.
Author: Sun, David
Language: English
Subfield: Gender Studies
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7203554415