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Upper Danube low flow in the Anthropocene: Simulating impacts and changes from 1870 to 2100

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Study region The study region is the Upper Danube Basin upstream of Vienna (∼100,000 km²) in Central Europe. Study focus The study investigates long‑term hydrological changes in the basin with a focus on low flow discharge and seasonal occurrence. An exceptionally long, daily hydrological time series covering 1870–2100 is generated using a hydrological model, which also simulates reservoir operation at major dams and glacier mass balance. The model is driven by observed meteorological data from 1870 to 2023 and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for the future. New hydrological insights for the region The hydrological simulations reproduce observed discharge and low flow dynamics well and reveal substantial past and future changes. Historically, Danube low flow discharge at Vienna increased by around 15% during the 20th century. Approximately one third of this past increase can be attributed to the construction and operation of reservoirs and two thirds to regional warming. Future projections show a trend of declining low flow discharge, with stronger decreases under the high emission scenario (SSP5–8.5 multi-model median of −18% until the end of the 21st century). The contrasting past and future responses in low flow discharge are explained by a shift in low flow occurrence from winter to autumn. The demonstrated gradual alteration of the seasonal flow regime of the Upper Danube, and its impact on low flow, have relevant implications for regional water management.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103862
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,600
OpenAlex ID: W7203744148
FWCI:
Cites: 65
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Related to: 10