Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Among the most widespread climate threats for India, drought impacts have not been quantitatively examined with respect to their implications for children’s schooling in a national context. The present study brings together over twenty years of satellite Earth observations and nationally representative household survey data to explore the impact of meteorological and agricultural drought on child school dropout rate in the age range of 6–17 years old in India. The SPEI metric was used to characterize meteorological drought conditions by calculating Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on CHIRPS rainfall dataset and GLEAM evaporation. Agricultural drought was evaluated by Scaled Drought Combined Indicator (SDCI), which combines three condition indices – Vegetation, Temperature and Precipitation indices obtained from MODIS data for 2001–2021. The satellite drought metrics were combined with the fifth National Family Health Survey data to calculate child-specific drought exposure ratio over the whole lifetime. Using multivariate logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and spatial error models the link between drought exposure and school dropout was estimated controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Both types of droughts increase dropout risk; however, the association is significantly stronger for agricultural drought and is more robust. The older children and females experience increased risks of dropout under both meteorological and especially agricultural drought conditions. Satellite-derived surfaces reveal significant clusters of drought dropouts mainly across central, eastern and northern India, including states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Dropout results mostly from financial hardships, lack of drinking water and increased domestic and labor demands on children. This study is, to our knowledge, the first satellite-based evaluation of the relationship between drought and school dropout rate for India. It is directly related to the fulfillment of SDG 4 and SDG 13.
Source: Research Square
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7203837199