The Probabilistic Horizon of Immortality: The Statistical Survival Limit of a Biological Substrate under Eliminated Senescence
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper re-evaluates the actuarial consequences of eliminated senescence, deriving a constant-hazard survival distribution with a finite mean and a vanishing tail probability over millennial horizons. Extending the analysis to astroengineering and cosmological scales, it demonstrates the quantitative irrelevance of the biological substrate for multi-million-year trajectories. The two candidate strategies for circumventing this finite ceiling—environmental risk suppression and substrate migration—are examined. Thermodynamic constraints are argued to preclude the former, as a zero-hazard limit is incompatible with the permanent development required in a degrading universe, thereby identifying the copyable, redundant architecture as the necessary condition for continued persistence. This conclusion is qualified by its dependence on the structural criterion of personal identity, presented as an unresolved epistemic contingency rather than a settled assumption.
Author: Mahlyankin, Stanislav
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7204082478