Effect of climate change on surface water availability at hare watershed, rift valley basin, South Ethiopia
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This study assessed the impacts of climate change on surface water availability using CMIP6 on the Hare watershed using daily hydro-meteorological data of Hare streamflow and from Arba Minch, Mirab Abaya, and Chencha stations. Downscaled climate data, such as SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios, were used to assess future periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. The HEC-HMS model was applied to assess projected surface water availability. Model calibration and validation show satisfactory performance with NSE = 0.62 and R² = 0.68, respectively. Compared to the baseline period, the average monthly precipitation in the watershed is projected to increase by 0.06 mm during 2021-2050 and by 0.08 mm during 2051-2080 under SSP4.5 scenarios. A severe reduction in dry season availability is expected from May through October. For the winter season, runoff is expected to increase by 23% under all four scenarios and decrease by 15% in the summer season. The projected average annual runoff overall in the watershed is expected to increase by 8.1% as compared to the observed runoff. These findings provide important implications for sustainable water resource planning and surface water availability under changing climatic conditions, but do not consider land use and land cover changes in the watershed.
Source: H2Open Journal
Institution: Arba Minch University
Language: English
Subfield: Water Science and Technology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7204098538