Thermal damage and lifespan deterioration of global infrastructure under climate warming
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Global warming imposes dual pressures on infrastructure systems by accelerating structural degradation while simultaneously amplifying embodied carbon emissions. This study, grounded in a physics-based multidisciplinary framework, models the thermo-mechanical deterioration of concrete cable-stayed bridges under climate-induced thermal loading. A novel three-dimensional carbon drift metric framework is developed to couple regional climatic variability with structural performance decay. Through finite-element simulations incorporating site-specific extreme temperatures, altitudinal gradients, and climate uncertainty, we derive quantitative estimates of warming-induced reductions in structural service life with enhanced temporal accuracy. Empirical findings reveal that 8.67% of global cable-stayed bridges have entered premature demolition during their operational phases, with excess carbon emissions reaching 101,535.693 tons–equivalent to 2.70 times the carbon output projected at the original design stage. Geospatial modeling identifies temperate maritime and temperate continental climate zones as high-vulnerability regions, necessitating urgent recalibration of design code specifications for service life. The proposed global thermal damage model, which embeds uncertainty quantification and extreme-event statistical characterization, offers transferable applicability to other structural typologies. This work provides reference-grade data for climate-adaptive infrastructure design updates and contributes empirical scientific evidence to the sustainable infrastructure targets outlined in the United Nations 2030 Agenda.
Language: English
Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,000
OpenAlex ID: W7204116093