A Target Loss Probability Model-Based Framework for Risk Assessment and Defensive Resource Prioritization of Critical Infrastructure under Unmanned Aircraft System Threats
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Unmanned aircraft system (UAS) threats pose increasing security challenges to critical infrastructure, especially under low-frequency but high-consequence scenarios where historical data are limited.This study proposes a structured risk assessment and defensive resource prioritization framework based on the Target Loss Probability Model.An evaluation index system comprising Target Value (RV), Attacker Resource (RA), and Defensive Resources (RD) is constructed, and the Maximizing Deviation Method is used to integrate subjective and objective indicator weights under small-sample expert-scoring conditions.Monte Carlo simulation is applied to construct relative risk grading thresholds, while Sobol global sensitivity analysis is used to identify key defensive indicators.A scenario-based case study of an anonymized nuclear facility shows that increasing the defensive resource capability index from 0.5542 to 0.8245 reduces the Target Loss Probability index from 0.2542 to 0.2039, thereby downgrading the relative risk level from high to medium.The proposed framework transforms qualitative threat factors into computable model inputs and provides decision support for prioritizing improvements to counter-UAS RD.
Authors: Chenglin Yang, Xinyu Hao, Hua Jin
Institution: China People's Public Security University
Language: English
Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7204154133