Remote impacts of ice-sheet meltwater forcing on West African cereal yields and domestic cereal production per capita
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: West Africa is highly exposed to climate variability, and rain-fed cereal production remains particularly sensitive to changes in monsoon rainfall, temperature, and radiation. Beyond greenhouse-gas-driven warming, freshwater input from polar ice-sheet melting may alter large-scale ocean–atmosphere circulation and remotely affect West African hydroclimate. Here, we assess how idealized freshwater forcing from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (WAIS) modifies climate conditions relevant to cereal production in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. We use bias-corrected simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR model under RCP8.5, including two freshwater hosing experiments representing Greenland Ice Sheet melt and WAIS melt. Daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation fields are used to force the SARRA-O crop model for maize, millet, and sorghum over the mid-21st century period (2041–2070). Simulated yields are combined with national cultivated areas and United Nations population projections to estimate domestic cereal production per capita, used here as a partial proxy for pressure on domestic cereal-supply capacity. The Greenland meltwater experiment strongly reduces monsoon rainfall over the study region and leads to substantial cereal-yield declines, with production losses reaching up to 50% for maize in several countries. In contrast, the West Antarctic meltwater experiment increases rainfall in parts of West Africa and partly offsets yield losses relative to the RCP8.5 baseline. However, once projected population growth is included, domestic cereal production per capita declines sharply across all countries and scenarios, indicating that demographic growth remains a dominant driver of reduced per capita production. These results show that remote ice-sheet meltwater forcing can substantially modify West African cereal-production outcomes, with contrasting effects depending on the hemisphere of freshwater input. While the analysis does not provide a complete assessment of food security, it highlights a potential additional climate-driven pressure on domestic cereal-supply capacity in a region already facing strong demographic and climatic constraints.
Source: Environmental Research Climate
Language: English
Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science
Domain: Life Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,515
OpenAlex ID: W7204166654