Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: On February 28, 2026, a major regional war broke out involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. While the theory of structural realism considers this conflict the product of shifting power dynamics, this article argues that it is better explained by what we term diversionary rhetorical entrapment. Politically vulnerable leaders inflate foreign threats to survive domestic crises, using aggressive rhetoric as a substitute for military conflict. However, this “cheap talk” generates domestic audience costs, prompts reactions from adversaries, and pressures the state's own military apparatus to align with the manufactured threat. We test this mechanism using Israel as a crucial case, analyzing political and military discourse alongside conflict data from 1973–2024. Difference‐in‐differences and time‐series models suggest a distinctive Netanyahu Effect, whereby the executive monopolizes threat inflation independently of contemporaneous military events. The results also indicate an approximately 24‐month lag between peaks of executive securitization and subsequent military escalation. Stopping the dataset at the close of 2024, our pre‐war estimates are consistent with the regional escalations of 2025 and 2026, suggesting that sustained diversionary rhetoric can trap a state into conflicts that threaten to spiral beyond its control.
Source: Middle East Policy
DOI: 10.1111/mepo.70089
Author: Bulent Aras
Institution: Center for International Policy Research
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,300
OpenAlex ID: W7204170879