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Regional Disparities in Seasonal and Annual Climate Trends Between Dhaka and Rajshahi, Bangladesh (1981–2022)

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Climate change impacts are experienced differently across Bangladesh, but few long-term seasonal comparisons have been made between the central and northwestern regions. This study was carried out to examine the seasonal and annual trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall in Dhaka (central) and Rajshahi (northwest) from 1981 to 2022. Monthly data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were aggregated into seasonal and annual series. Trend magnitude and significance were determined using simple linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator. Annual maximum temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01, 99% confidence) in both districts. Warming was more pronounced in Rajshahi during the monsoon season (+0.052 °C/yr) than in Dhaka (+0.035 °C/yr). Rajshahi showed significant warming during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, while pre-monsoon and winter trends remained weak and statistically insignificant in both districts. However, there was a substantial annual decline (p < 0.05). The largest decrease occurred in Rajshahi's monsoon rainfall (Sen's slope: -2.11 mm/yr, p < 0.01), while Dhaka showed its largest decline in pre-monsoon rainfall. Results showed intense inland amplification of warming and developing monsoon rainfall deficits in northwestern Bangladesh. The results emphasised the importance of regionally specific, seasonally nuanced adaptation scenarios to reduce Bangladesh's growing heat stress, drought risk, and water vulnerability. Based on these findings, we recommend that water and heat adaptation plans in Bangladesh be designed separately for each district and season, rather than using a single national plan for the whole country.
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22096223
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7204183979
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