HORMUZ STRAIT GEOPOLITICAL DISRUPTIONS AND PERSONAL FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY: A Case Study of Mid-Career Professionals in India's Private Higher Education Sector (2019-2024)
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Geopolitical disruptions in critical maritime infrastructure create ripple effects throughout economies, affecting not just international trade but also individual household financial security. This study examines how the Hormuz Strait tensions (2019-2024) impacted personal financial management decisions among mid-career professionals (35-50 years old) employed in India's private university sector. Using mixed-methods research combining survey data (N=847 respondents across 23 private universities in India) and longitudinal financial records, we document that geopolitical uncertainty increased personal financial stress markers by 34-42%, with impacts concentrated among professionals with high exposure to import-dependent sectors, international travel, or savings in foreign currency. We identify three financial vulnerability channels: (1) increased cost-of-living pressures (rising inflation, higher education costs), (2) income volatility (uncertain salary increments, job insecurity), and (3) behavioral shifts (increased precautionary savings, risk-averse investment decisions, delayed major financial commitments). Heterogeneous effects are substantial: professionals in oil-sector-dependent cities experienced 56% higher financial stress; those with daughters in higher education abroad reported 27% greater concern about rupee depreciation. We propose targeted policy interventions including employer-provided geopolitical risk hedging, financial literacy programs emphasizing crisis management, and institutional mechanisms for salary stability during global shocks. This research bridges macroeconomic disruption literature with personal finance vulnerability, contributing to understanding of how global events transmit into household-level financial decision-making in emerging markets.
Source: SocArXiv (OSF Preprints)
Author: Jainish Bhagat
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7204184065