Work

Unveiling decadal patterns of social vulnerability in coastal Bangladesh: A longitudinal perspective for disaster risk reduction

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Social vulnerability fundamentally shapes how communities experience and recover from hazards, particularly in climate-sensitive coastal regions. For the disaster-prone coastal region of Bangladesh, a nuanced understanding of how vulnerability evolves over time is crucial for effective risk reduction. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of social vulnerability in this region from 2001 to 2022, offering a longitudinal perspective on how social factors shape disaster preparedness and recovery. Using census-derived socio-demographic indicators within a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) framework, three temporal indices (2001, 2011, and 2022) were developed to quantify vulnerability trends at the upazila level. GIS-based mapping, hotspot and Moran's I cluster analysis, and percentage-change detection were employed to elucidate the temporal dynamics of social vulnerability. Bivariate validation with critical infrastructure coverage confirmed the consistency of the derived patterns, while sensitivity analysis identified influential parameters and ensured methodological robustness. Results reveal a distinct reversal in social vulnerability trajectories, declining by 15.93% between 2001 and 2011, due to improved electrification, sanitation, and literacy, however, increasing sharply by 29.62% from 2011 to 2022 amid rapid urbanization, tenancy growth, population aging, and climate-induced service deficits in basic services and critical infrastructure access. Overall, 82% of coastal upazilas exhibited a net increase in vulnerability, with emerging hotspots in Laxmipur, Bhola, Noakhali, Feni and Coxsbazar. This study presents the first decadal-scale SoVI framework for Bangladesh, bridging a critical gap in coastal vulnerability research. The findings indicate that socio-economic gains can be rapidly offset by structural and climatic stresses, emphasizing the importance of integrating temporal vulnerability assessments into disaster-risk governance aligned with national sustainability goals and the Sendai Framework.

Source: Progress in Disaster Science

DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100702

Authors: Sheikh Touhiduzzaman, Md. Ashraful Islam, Amy L. Griffin, Sanzida Murshed

Institutions: University of Dhaka, RMIT University

Language: English

Topic: Disaster Management and Resilience

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Sustainable cities and communities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,120