Phenology-resolved dynamics of rice growth and methane emissions across transplanting dates and cultivars using logistic models
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from flooded paddy soils are closely linked to rice growth, yet this relationship is commonly evaluated using seasonal totals rather than dynamic growth–emission indicators. This study applied three-parameter logistic models to characterize phenology-associated rice growth and CH 4 accumulation under four transplanting dates in a continuously flooded paddy field. Koshihikari, an early- to medium-maturing cultivar, and Chamdream, a medium- to late-maturing cultivar, were evaluated for plant growth, grain yield, and CH 4 emissions. Logistic parameters describing asymptotic magnitude (L), inflection timing (x 0 ), rate (k), and time to 90% accumulation (t 90 ) were derived. Delayed transplanting shortened the transplanting-to-heading period and compressed crop development without a significant yield penalty. Compared with the May transplantings, the June transplantings reduced both observed seasonal CH 4 emissions and fitted asymptotes by approximately one-half, resulting in similarly lower CH 4 -based global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity. Logistic models accurately described cumulative CH 4 emissions (R 2 =0.993–0.999; NRMSE = 2.56–5.60%). Delayed transplanting advanced CH 4 x0 by 19–36 d in Koshihikari and 16–37 d in Chamdream and shortened t 90 by 35–55 and 26–65 d, respectively, indicating earlier and more compressed CH 4 accumulation. Positive associations between aboveground biomass and cumulative CH 4 emissions remained significant after adjustment for days after transplanting. These findings show that crop-calendar adjustment can reduce CH 4 intensity under continuous flooding and that logistic timing indices can complement seasonal totals for phenology-based monitoring and emission-factor refinement.
Source: Smart Agricultural Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Plant Science
Domain: Life Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,770
Funder: Rural Development Administration
Award: G5063712431
OpenAlex ID: W7204248918
