Work

D3.1 Hierarchical Statistical Framework for Dynamic Ecological Assessment

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This deliverable presents the hierarchical statistical framework developed within the BioClima project for dynamic ecological assessment of biodiversity under changing climate and environmental conditions. The framework establishes a unified methodological foundation for integrating heterogeneous biodiversity observations, Earth Observation (EO) products, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) data, and environmental covariates into a coherent, uncertainty-aware modelling system. At its core, the deliverable adopts hierarchical integrated species distribution models (ISDMs) that distinguish ecological processes from observation processes, enabling the robust integration of presence-only, detection/non-detection, and abundance data while explicitly accounting for spatial and temporal dependencies and observation bias. The document further describes the complementary role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques in supporting feature extraction, habitat mapping, biodiversity indicator generation, anomaly detection, ecological early warning, and decision support. The proposed framework is designed to accommodate diverse ecological conditions and monitoring requirements across the BioClima case studies through a modular and scalable architecture that supports pilot-specific adaptations while maintaining methodological consistency. By integrating Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), advanced statistical modelling, and AI-enhanced geospatial analytics, the deliverable provides the methodological backbone for biodiversity monitoring, ecological risk assessment, scenario analysis, and evidence-based environmental management throughout the BioClima project.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21807359

Authors: Mostert, Philip Stanley, O'Hara, Bob, Paraskevas, Charalampos, Kotsopoulos, Stelios

Language: English

Topic: Species Distribution and Climate Change

Subfield: Ecological Modeling

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life on land, Climate action

Open Access status: green

Funder: European Commission

Award: Improving Monitoring for Better Integrated Climate and Biodiversity Approaches, Using Environmental and Earth Observations