Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: In today's dynamic market environment and an increasing amount of data, there is a problem of decision-making in the field of marketing due to a large number of uncertainties. The most popular current approaches do not always allow quantifying a particular event and correctly assessing the degree and significance of uncertainty and managing it. This article examines the application of Thomas Bayes' theorem in marketing as a tool for accounting for uncertainty, updating available data and making more informed decisions later. The material examines the theoretical foundations of Bayes' theorem, its key features, identifies the advantages and disadvantages of the method, and provides an example of specific marketing tasks that Bayes' theorem helps to solve and demonstrates high efficiency. In addition, Bayes' theorem is compared with other alternative approaches. Attention is also paid to the development of a practical example of the application of Bayse's theorem to analyze the results of an advertising campaign based on random data.
Author: Viktor S. Shamanov
Institution: Samara National Research University
Language: English
Subfield: Statistics and Probability
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7204273281