Wartime business relocation intentions and adaptive capacity in Ukraine: Evidence from multinomial logit and latent class analysis
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Russia’s full-scale invasion has transformed the spatial, infrastructural and financial conditions of Ukrainian business activity, making wartime relocation and adaptive capacity critical issues for economic resilience. This study aims to examine how Ukrainian businesses respond to wartime disruption by identifying the determinants of domestic and international relocation intentions and the latent profiles of business vulnerability and adaptation. The empirical analysis is based on survey data from 606 Ukrainian business representatives. It applies multinomial logit modelling to a complete-case sample of 505 observations, together with latent class analysis using 22 binary indicators. The results show that relocation intentions are heterogeneous: 31.7% of respondents reported no relocation intention, 28.7% had not considered relocation, 21.6% considered relocation within Ukraine and 18.0% considered relocation abroad. Domestic relocation is associated with credit risk (RRR = 1.570), logistics disruption (RRR = 2.277), import decline (RRR = 3.498) and reliance on own funds (RRR = 2.101). Foreign relocation is associated with business severity (RRR = 1.599), import decline (RRR = 4.224) and foreign cooperation, as the absence of foreign cooperation reduces the likelihood of relocation abroad (RRR = 0.343). Latent class analysis identifies two profiles: constrained non-investing firms (39.4%) and active adaptive vulnerable firms (60.6%), which differ significantly in relocation attitudes, χ²(3) = 12.83, p = 0.005, Cramer’s V = 0.146.
Source: Economics & Sociology
Language: English
Topic: Economic Issues in Ukraine
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7204448196