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Silicon Sample Benchmark — Tier 3 (direct effect forecast) submission (team team_15)

Year: 2026

Type: software

Abstract: Tier 3 (direct effect forecast) submission to the Silicon Sample Benchmark (team team_15). Approach family: direct effect forecasting (no synthetic respondents); LLM prompted as a social-science expert; ensemble of 10 instruction variants; one-outcome-per-call decomposition (Mode A: all 16 interventions compared within each outcome). Model(s): gpt-5.6-sol. Coverage: 16 interventions × 13 preregistered outcomes. This record archives the prediction file(s), generation code, and method registration form.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22169615

Authors: Kamphorst, Jonne, Chen, Huanxing, Bernstein, Michael, Willer, Robb

Institutions: Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Stanford University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Communication and Perception

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7204721187

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