Rethinking global scenario logics: Lessons from downscaling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in Central and Eastern Europe
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are widely used to explore global futures and inform climate and sustainability policy. However, SSP downscaling to the national level remains limited, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a post-socialist and semi-peripheral region whose historical and institutional trajectories are underrepresented in scenario development. To address this gap, we develop a set of Czech SSPs (CZ-SSPs) and examine their methodological and conceptual implications for SSP downscaling and future development of the SSP framework. Building on the European SSPs, we combine a review of existing Czech scenarios, exploratory horizon scanning of non-scientific sources and academic and grey literature, and two rounds of interview-based co-design with experts from academia and public administration. The resulting CZ-SSPs comprise four contrasting narratives: CZ-SSP1 Balance, CZ-SSP3 Conflict and Breakdown, CZ-SSP4 Fortress World, and CZ-SSP5 Many Faces of Growth. Our findings show that horizon scanning helps expand SSP narratives beyond conventional socio-economic drivers by identifying weak signals related to socio-political, technological and cultural change, while expert co-design strengthens their contextual plausibility and internal consistency. The Czech case demonstrates how historical, political and cultural path dependencies, together with Czechia’s semi-peripheral position within Europe, can challenge assumptions embedded in global and European SSP logics. Particularly, CZ-SSP1 and CZ-SSP5 reveal alternative pathways through which sustainability transformations and growth-oriented development may unfold. More broadly, the paper contributes a transferable approach to SSP downscaling that combines contextual sensitivity, social-science-informed analysis and stakeholder validation, while offering lessons for the ongoing Scenario Evolution Process aimed at updating the global SSP framework.
Institutions: Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute, Charles University, Institute of International Relations Prague, Prague University of Economics and Business, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Institute of Technology and Business, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Cranfield University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
Award: G3645547498
OpenAlex ID: W7204929596