Year: 2026
Type: report
Abstract: The stock market valuation of AI-related firms has increased tenfold over the past decade, while fixed investment in the sector as a whole is so massive that it is the primary driver of US growth in 2025. This contribution proposes examining the surge in the financial value of AI-related stocks and capital expenditures in AI-related assets through the lens of the crisis theory of overaccumulation and discusses the specificities of this AI rush. After documenting the extent of the AI bubble, we argue that crisis dynamics emerge from the competitive, compulsory drive to invest, which coerces firms' behavior without ensuring the macro conditions for the sustainability of the aggregate investment boom. We then distinguish the vulnerabilities arising from the surplus of capital invested in AI relative to valorization opportunities. Following the Anna Karenina principle, we show that there is one path toward the sustained expansion of the AI sector (a rosy scenario) but three paths to crisis that interact with one another, related to mounting financial fragilities, coordination failures, and labor productivity disappointments. In light of the debate on techno-feudalism, we then discuss the broader implications of this likely macro disruption.
Authors: Valenti, Gaia Cécile, Durand, Cédric
Institution: University of Geneva
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7207936985