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Does the Morphological Evolution of Green Spaces Directly Influence Their Thermal Regulatory Capacity? Evidence from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Green space is a pivotal factor influencing the urban thermal environment. Focusing on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), this study first employs Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to identify the morphological components and evolutionary trends of urban green spaces. Second, integrated with regional geospatial characteristics, a Space-Time Cube model is applied to investigate the annual spatio-temporal thermal trends since 2000, alongside diurnal and seasonal patterns. Finally, the XGBoost model coupled with SHAP interpretation was leveraged to decipher both the linear and non-linear relationships between MSPA elements and the seasonal thermal environment, providing a scientific basis for urban heat resilience planning. The results indicate that: (1) The total area of green space followed a "decrease-then-increase" trajectory, characterized by the coexistence of regional divergence and convergence; while Core areas remain the largest in extent, they exhibit a shrinking trend and are transitioning to other landscape types. Furthermore, green spaces show signs of fragmentation, with marked differences between urban and rural shifts. (2) The thermal environment exhibits an overall warming trend, with significant seasonal variations in spatial distribution and spatio-temporal evolution. Specifically, the changes in core thermal elements during summer differ distinctly from the other three seasons. (3) A strong correlation exists between green space and the thermal environment, with Core, Perforation, and Edge elements showing the most significant associations across all seasons. The regulatory effects of these spaces vary seasonally, and there is a notable synergistic interaction between the "Core" and other morphological elements.
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9989870/v1
Language: English
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7208748967
Cites: 35
Cited by:
Related to: 10