Did Cyber Futures Scenarios Get It Right? A Retrospective Audit of 120 Explicit Predictions at Cybersecurity Conferences, 2005-2018
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Background. Cybersecurity conferences influence professional and media agendas, yet their claims about the future are seldom evaluated after their stated horizon has elapsed. Methods. We audited 120 explicit predictions made between 2005 and 2018 in 36 sessions at Black Hat USA, the Chaos Communication Congress, and Virus Bulletin. The outcome-blind corpus was frozen before outcomes were assessed. Results. Fifty-four predictions were fulfilled, 35 were not fulfilled, and 31 were indeterminate. Among the 89 resolvable predictions, 54 met their threshold (60.7%; descriptive 95% Wilson interval: 50.3-70.2%). Interpretation. The corpus suggests that conferences functioned reasonably as topic radar, but less well as instruments for forecasting mechanism, magnitude, prevalence, or timing. The contribution is a traceable method for subjecting prospective rhetoric to explicit conditions of error.
Author: Pacheco, Federico
Institution: National Technological University
Language: English
Subfield: Information Systems
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7208828505