BoP in Q2 2024; Oil market in H1 2024; Crypto market in H1 2024; Dynamics of hedonic prices on the short-term rental real estate market in Moscow
Year: 2024
Type: preprint
Abstract: As of end Q2 2024, the current account surplus rose by 2.3-fold compared to Q2 2023 mainly on the back of a decrease in the value of imports and reduction of the balance deficit of primary and secondary income. In Q2 2024, the deficit of the financialaccount balance formed under the impact of the growth of residents’ foreign assets and increase in non-residents’ debt on outstanding settlements. These trends led to the ruble appreciation in Q2 2024, which was due to growth of net sales of foreigncurrency by Russian exporters, decrease in imports, preservation of tight monetary conditions, as well as sales of currency by the Bank of Russia within the framework of operations of the Ministry of Finance of Russia with the resources of the NationalWelfare Fund. Rising demand for hydrocarbons from the air transportation and petrochemical sectors will be another factor in addition to the extension of voluntary oil production cuts under the OPEC+ deal, which will keep oil prices at $80–85/bbl by the end of2024. In H2 2024, it is expected to adjust the terms of the zeroing of the gasoline and diesel dampers, after which an increase in the price of one category will not deprive subsidy payments for the other. Cryptocurrency market capitalization in H1 2024 is not far from its historical maximums. Bitcoin is the main driver of the market, the growth of which is primarily due to the emergence of appropriate instruments on the U.S. exchange (Bitcoin-ETF).This event may lead to a structural change in the composition of cryptocurrency market participants in the medium term. Other cryptocurrencies show mixed dynamics. Significant growth in the first six months of 2024 is noted for the TON cryptocurrency, which grew more than twice and became the eighth in terms of capitalization. The hedonic prices growth for short-term rentals in Moscow in 2023 and January 2024 was about 3 times higher than the growth rate of the all-Russian consumer price index and amounted to 28%. We attribute the main explanation for theoutstripping growth of short-term rental prices to the effect of a low base and the demand recovery after the market stagnation observed in 2022.
Institution: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7210274011