Orbital VIIRS Telemetry for Gas Flaring & Nowcasting
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: 1. Objective This paper establishes an independent, satellite-based remote sensing and econometric auditing framework to nowcast upstream petroleum extraction and detect Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) evasion by processing VIIRS orbital infrared radiance telemetry. 2. Methodology & Execution Radiant Heat Physics Integration: Isolated Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) thermal anomalies via VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) telemetry and applied the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law ($RH = \sigma \epsilon A T^4$) to calculate aggregate Radiant Heat (MW) and flared gas volume (BCM). Econometric Production Nowcasting: Implemented OLS regression coupling empirical flared gas volumes with historical Gas-to-Oil Ratios (GOR) to reconstruct real-time uncalibrated oil production up to 45 days prior to official corporate filings. Fiscal Audit & Tax Penalty Modeling: Quantified the structural divergence between physics-based nowcast production and reported corporate disclosures to evaluate shadow extraction and compute legal MET tax liabilities. 3. Key Findings & Impact Nowcasted vs. Reported Divergence: Identified 150 thermal anomalies, reconstructing 426.46 Million bbl of true oil production against 357.03 Million bbl officially reported, exposing 69.44 Million bbl of shadow extraction. Fiscal Recovery Quantification: Isolated $\$9.19$ Million in uncollected Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) liabilities and environmental penalties for regulatory bodies. Non-Manipulatable Audit Vector: Demonstrated that orbital radiance telemetry provides a non-manipulatable, high-frequency leading indicator for corporate intelligence and ESG compliance monitoring.
Author: Bekdaulet, Abzhamiev
Language: English
Field: Energy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7210278970