Work

Anti-Environmental Signals and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Political signals can influence behavior through information that alters enforcement expectations. We provide causal evidence from Brazil’s 2019 political transition, asking whether anti-environmental signals from the Bolsonaro government increased Amazon deforestation without formal regulatory change. We combine monthly government tweets with pre-2019 municipal Twitter attention to forest issues in a shift-share design across 578 Legal Amazon municipalities. A one-standard-deviation increase in exposure raises monthly deforestation by 6.8%. Effects are largest where agricultural returns are high and conservation enforcement was historically strong. Exposure does not predict municipal fines or embargoes and effects do not vary with political allegiance, pointing to perceived enforcement risk rather than immediate local enforcement or partisan interpretation. Political speech can weaken environmental institutions even without new formal policy.

Source: The Journal of Politics

DOI: 10.1086/744065

Authors: Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira, Elías Cisneros, Jorge Sellare, Jan Börner

Language: English

Topic: Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Peace, justice, and strong institutions, Life on land, Climate action

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7212810293

FWCI:

Cites: 22

Cited by: 11

Related to: 10