Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: ABSTRACT: This study examined the relationship between soybean production and soybean prices in Türkiye during 2000-2023 using distributed lag models such as Koyck and Almon. Soybean production was considered as the dependent variable, while the price series, composed of current and lagged soybean prices, was used as the explanatory variable. According to the results of the Koyck model, soybean production has been influenced by price changes up to seven years in the past. It takes approximately 7.5 years for changes in soybean prices to significantly impact production levels. The explanatory power of lagged price changes in soybean production changes was found to be 81%. Additionally, the model results also indicated that an increase of 1 TL increase in soybean prices leads to an approximate increase of approximately 54 tons in production, while an increase of 1 TL in the price from the previous period increases production by 48 tons. The results suggested that soybean production responds to price signals with a long adjustment period. By quantifying the dynamic response of soybean production to price signals, this study provided policy-relevant insights into the effectiveness of agricultural pricing mechanisms in reducing Türkiye’s structural dependence on soybean imports. However, the analysis conducted using the Almon model revealed that the model was not statistically significant. According to the model, only 37% of the variation in soybean production can be explained by changes in lagged prices. Examining the model coefficients showed that prices in previous periods positively influence current production levels. Soybeans, which rank among the most imported oilseed crops in Türkiye and hold strategic importance, particularly for the feed industry. However, domestic soybean production remains well below the level required to meet current demand. Despite recent increases in support for soybean production, the limited competitiveness of soybeans against alternative crops in the regions where they are grown restricts the desired expansion of production.
Source: Ciência Rural
Author: Ali Berk
Institution: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $133
OpenAlex ID: W7213137336