The Multipolar Mobility Arbitrage: Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and Exergy Alignment for Light-Duty EV Adoption Across Non-Western Global Markets
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Accelerating the global transition to electric transport requires analyzing adoption kinetics outside traditional Western markets and oil-exporting economies. This paper presents a quantitative Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and exergy efficiency framework for light-duty electric vehicle (EV) adoption across non-Western Global South markets (excluding the USA, Morocco, and Israel), removing protectionist tariffs, subsidy distortions, and specific geopolitical trade barriers from the baseline economics. We formulate the landed capital cost ($C_{\text{landed}}$) incorporating FOB base pricing, international freight, customs duties, excise brackets, and value-added tax (VAT). At the operational level, Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) exhibit 85%–90% exergy conversion efficiency compared to 18%–22% for traditional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) thermal platforms. Over a $100,000\text{ km}$ operating cycle, BEV platforms achieve a 70%–85% reduction in kinetic energy expenditure, producing cumulative net operational savings of $\$8,000\text{ to }\$12,000\text{ USD}$ over a 5-year lease horizon. To evaluate macroeconomic alignment, we define the Transition Efficiency Index ($\Phi_{\text{trans}}$): $$\Phi_{\text{trans}} = \frac{R_{\text{grid}} \cdot P_{\text{import}}}{\tau_{\text{EV}}}$$ which identifies maximum national payoff in non-oil producing developing states suffering from foreign exchange (FX) reserves strain due to refined fossil fuel imports. Comparative case studies profile 10 priority target nations: Uruguay, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nepal, Chile, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ghana. Finally, macro-level adoption trajectories across these corridors are evaluated using the E-S-C-X (Ecological, Social, Consciousness, Expansion) equilibrium framework. The projected 5-year macro vector evolves from a baseline average of E1.5-S1.5-C2.2-X1.5 ($3.7 \ge 3.0$) in 2026 to E2.5-S2.5-C2.9-X2.5 ($5.4 \ge 5.0$) by 2031, demonstrating that decentralized renewable transport maintains long-term structural civilizational stability under the rule $(S + C) \ge (E + X)$. Keywords Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), Multipolar Mobility, Exergy Accounting, Non-Western EV Transition, Transition Efficiency Index, E-S-C-X Framework, Global South
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7214710985