Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This study presents a mathematical formulation for determining critical disturbance thresholds of water transport configurations under multifactor uncertainty. Functional admissibility is defined by simultaneous constraints on delivery time, available capacity, operational risk, and reliability. Disturbances are represented by additional delay and relative changes in capacity, risk, and reliability. Analytical thresholds identify the disturbance levels at which individual constraints become active. An illustrative calculation yields a maximum additional delay of 12 h, a capacity reduction of 16.67%, a risk increase of 50%, and a reliability reduction of approximately 8.16%. A combined disturbance scenario satisfies all four requirements, whereas increasing capacity reduction to 18% lowers available capacity to 984 t against a required cargo volume of 1000 t. The formulation supports preliminary assessment of transport configurations and identification of exhausted functional reserves. Its scope is limited to a fixed configuration with separable disturbance effects; interactions between factors, rerouting, and recovery dynamics are not modelled. The numerical results illustrate the method and do not constitute operational standards. Referenes 1. Malde, A. K., & Işık, T. (2026). Optimal transportation mode selection and capacity allocation under uncertainty. Annals of Operations Research, 356(2), 1021–1057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-025-06891-3 2. Flórez Rojas, S.Y., Polo Triana, S.I. Algorithms for Routing Vehicles With Time Constraints and Uncertain Travel Times: A Systematic Review and Resilience Framework. Arch Computat Methods Eng (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-026-10746-w 3. Yang, Y., Huang, H., Li, G., Han, B., Yuan, Z., & Ma, H. (2025). A systematic review of resilience assessment and enhancement of urban integrated transportation networks. Journal of Transport Geography, 129, 104420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104420 4. Ai, Q., Xu, C., Tong, H., Peng, C., Wen, H., & Levin, M. (2026). Daily resilience of urban road transportation systems: Assessment, enhancement, and recovery. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 275, 112788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112788 5. Huang, H., Yuan, Z., Yang, Y., Li, G., Salamatov, V. Y., Han, B., Kozhankov, A. Y., Luo, Z., & Yu, S. (2026). Spatiotemporal diagnosis towards mismatch between traffic crash risks and safety governance in rapidly urbanizing cities. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 233, 108559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2026.108559 6. Li, G., Ji, S., Cheng, W., Wang, W., Yan, X., Yang, Z., Yang, Y., & Zhang, J. (2025). A new framework for modelling traffic conflict interval time based on correlated random parameter duration model with heterogeneity in means and variances. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 224, 108282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2025.108282 7. Moyano Retamero, J., & Camarero Orive, A. (2026). Operationalizing Resilience in Critical Logistics Infrastructures: A Reliability-Based Decision Support System Grounded in Eurocode Standards. Systems, 14(2), 191. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14020191 8. Hernandez-Santos, C., Martinez-Malacara, G. A., Reynoso-Guajardo, L. A., Hernandez-Vega, J. I., Gallardo-Morales, M. C., Macias-Tobias, F. F., Hernandez, A., & Garcia-Andrade, R. (2026). Stability Limits of Coordinated Supply Chains Under Transportation Delays: Implications for Resilient Logistics Design. Systems, 14(7), 752. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14070752 9. Taghvaei, D., & Rabbani, M. (2026). Designing a resilient humanitarian supply chain with intermodal transportation: A two-stage stochastic programming approach. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 106, 102533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2026.102533 10. Hosseini Dehshiri, S. J. (2025). Reverse logistics and lean, agile, resilient, and green paradigms in supply chain: A comparative analysis of fuzzy decision-making methods. Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain, 17, 100284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clscn.2025.100284 11. Deep, S., Jha, K. N., Vishnoi, S., Kumar, A., & Shetty, P. B. (2025). Disruption to construction supply chains during COVID-19 in developing economies: A strategic framework for sustainable and resilient logistics. Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain, 16, 100235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clscn.2025.100235 12. Rezaei, S., & Bahrami, M. (2026). A geospatially clustered backup design for resilient and sustainable vaccine supply chains under distribution-center disruptions. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 220, 112250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2026.112250
Author: Olha Shcherbina
Institution: Odessa National Maritime University
Language: English
Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7216488405