Regional Financial Management Efficiency as a Mediator of Fiscal Resilience Risk in North Sumatra
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Economic growth is generally expected to strengthen regional fiscal capacity; however, rapid growth may also increase fiscal vulnerability when public financial resources are managed inefficiently. While previous studies have primarily examined the direct relationship between economic growth and fiscal outcomes, limited attention has been paid to the mediating role of regional financial management efficiency in mitigating fiscal resilience risk, particularly in Indonesian local governments. This study addresses this gap by investigating whether regional financial management efficiency serves as the mechanism through which economic growth enhances fiscal resilience in the districts and municipalities of North Sumatra. A quantitative approach was employed using a census of all 33 local governments in North Sumatra based on the 2025 Regional Budget (APBD) realization, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and local government financial statements. Data were analyzed using path analysis and the Sobel test to evaluate the mediation effect. The findings reveal that economic growth significantly improves regional financial management efficiency, while greater efficiency significantly reduces fiscal resilience risk. Moreover, the direct relationship between economic growth and fiscal resilience risk becomes insignificant after accounting for financial management efficiency, indicating a full mediation effect. These findings extend the fiscal resilience literature by demonstrating that efficient regional financial management constitutes the key mechanism through which economic growth is translated into sustainable fiscal resilience rather than fiscal vulnerability. Practically, the results highlight the importance of strengthening budget efficiency, expenditure control, and digital financial governance to enhance fiscal resilience in local governments.
Source: INVOICE JURNAL ILMU AKUNTANSI
DOI: 10.26618/k52h1096
Authors: Jalilah Ilmiha, Lusi Elviani Rangkuti
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7218891743