Characterization and Forecasting of Future Drought in the Gambia River Basin at Kédougou Using Standardized Indices, Machine Learning, and Deep Neural Networks
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Background: Drought is one of the most complex and damaging hydroclimatic hazards, particularly in West Africa where water resources are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. This study analyzes the future evolution of meteorological, climatic, and hydrological droughts in the Gambia River basin controlled at the Kédougou gauging station in southeastern Senegal. Methods: The approach combines precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, temperature, and simulated streamflow, and computes the SPI, SPEI, and SSI at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. Results reveal a major contrast between the precipitation signal and thermo-hydrological responses. Under SSP5-8.5, temperature and potential evapotranspiration rise substantially while streamflow declines. Conclusion: The study highlights a risk of chronic hydrological drought by the end of the century, particularly under high emissions, and demonstrates the value of multimodel forecasting for early warning and adaptive water-resources management.
Authors: Ibrahima Faye, Cheikh Faye
Institution: Ziguinchor University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7219677348