Work

Propuesta de procedimiento para la predicción del tipo de cambio a corto plazo mediante la utilización de técnicas contrastadas

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: In international financial relations, exchange rate prediction is an essential element for the successful completion of commercial or investment transactions. The objective of this research is to propose a procedure as unbiased as possible to predict the future course of exchange rates. In order to achieve these results, a set of predictive techniques have been compared, such as: technical analysis, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins methodology, ARCH-GARCH models and criteria for decision making under uncertain conditions. The main result of this study is that by contrasting the values obtained by these different techniques, a better prediction of exchange rates is achieved, as a basis for decisions related to the coverage of exchange risks.

Source: Cofin Habana

Authors: de la Oliva de Con, Fidel, Molina Fernández, Reinaldo

Institution: University of Havana

Language: Spanish

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: diamond

OpenAlex ID: W7220178558

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