Does an Asymmentric Nexus Exists Between Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria? Evidence From Nonlinear Ardl
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This study investigates the asymmetric relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and annual time series data from 1990 to 2024. The data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The analysis was motivated by persistent macroeconomic instability in Nigeria, despite decades of export-led growth policies. The study decomposes export changes into positive and negative shocks to assess their differential effects on GDP. Results reveal a significant asymmetric relationship in both the long and short run. Notably, positive export shocks negatively impact GDP, while negative shocks unexpectedly stimulate growth. These findings challenge the traditional Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis and underscore Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy reliance on crude oil exports and limited economic diversification. Additional macroeconomic variables import, exchange rate, inflation, money supply, and consumer prices also exhibit significant effects on GDP, varying by time horizon. The study recommends promoting non-oil exports, supporting domestic production, and ensuring transparent management of export revenues. These actions are essential for building a more resilient and inclusive economy capable of withstanding external shocks and fostering sustainable growth.
Language: English
Topic: Global trade and economics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7220199470