Resilience through Pathway Specificity for Managing Climate Shocks. A Review of Evidence from East Africa.
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Systematic Review
Abstract: The study systematically reviews and synthesizes 74 empirical studies from East Africa, covering Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Somaliland. Using study-level, asset-based thresholds and other complementary indicators, the findings identify that household resilience is non-linear and requires targeted, specific programming. The Pathway-Specific Resilience Framework (PSRF), which the paper validates, divides the target populations into two groups: a resource-deficient group that needs asset assistance and external safety nets (socially supported livelihood resilience pathway) and an asset-based cohort that prioritizes asset protection and market-based interventions. The study found that households with constrained resources face limitations in asset accumulation, which leave them more vulnerable to persistent poverty traps. PSRF proposes poverty graduation that balances immediate protection with long-term resilience through a sequence of protocols. The first “Protocol “A” protects resource-poor (Socially supported pathway) households to prioritize consumption, direct transfers (e.g., assets), and human capital. Once households transition to “Protocol B”, the shift is from survival assistance to access to market, finance, and index-based insurance. Additionally, the PSRF integrates other cross-cutting measures to sustain immediate gains from the protocols and prevent relapses brought by climate shocks. These include basic infrastructure like access to water, healthcare, and education; Connectivity and information such as early warning systems, transport, telecommunications, and adaptation measures including climate-smart technologies. Key words: Pathway-Specific Resilience Framework (PSRF), Drought resilience, livelihood pathways, Social protection, East Africa
Source: SocArXiv (OSF Preprints)
Author: Mohamed Abdirahman Ibrahim
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7220705384