Work

Development of Markov model and an adaptive method for planning amphibious operations under dynamic stochastic threats

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The object of this research is the process of planning and adjusting ship routes during amphibious operations under conditions of dynamic stochastic threats. The problem lies in the need to promptly adjust pre-planned ship routes in the event of changes in stochastic threats while simultaneously ensuring the necessary level of force survivability. A method for planning amphibious operations under dynamic stochastic threats is proposed. Markov decision process is used to model changes in the operational environment. The risk of losses is assessed using the conditional value at risk (CVaR) criterion. The model accounts for ship types, the number of landing points, time constraints, and force survivability requirements. The model considers four types of external threats: artillery, patrol boats, unmanned systems, and mines. The search for an optimized route is implemented using the Adaptive Large-Neighborhood Search (ALNS) method. Computational experiments tested the model using tactical and technical characteristics of various ship designs. The baseline scenario involved five ships, three to four landing points and 30 situation scenarios. The results were compared with those obtained using the exact method, the branch and bound method, greedy insertion and random insertion methods in terms of reward and force survivability. The average ALNS reward was 2870, versus 2990 for the exact method. The deviation was approximately 4%, while the fleet survivability indicator was 85%. Computing a new route in the scenarios considered took approximately 3–4 seconds, indicating the possibility of promptly adjusting routes during the operation. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is the combination of a Markov decision process, adaptive replanning, two-stage stochastic programming and risk assessment using the CVaR criterion. The results can be used in decision-making systems to compare scenarios for planning amphibious operations. Application under other conditions requires verification of the validity of the input data and model assumptions.

Source: Technology audit and production reserves

DOI: 10.15587/2706-5448.2026.378592

Authors: Maksym Maksymov, Oleksii Zaiats, Oleksiy Maksymov, Viacheslav Zaiats

Institutions: Odesа Polytechnic National University, National University «Odesa Maritime Academy»

Language: English

Topic: Military Defense Systems Analysis

Subfield: Aerospace Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $75