Work

Trajectories of a Composite Lipid, Glucose, and Refined Obesity Index Predict Cardiovascular Disease

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance and central adiposity are key drivers of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although the CHG index and obesity-related indicators can separately predict metabolic risks, this study explored the predictive value of their composite indices and longitudinal trajectories for incident CVD. METHODS: Based on 4164 middle-aged and elderly participants from a national prospective cohort, we analyzed baseline levels, cumulative exposures and K-means-defined longitudinal trajectories of CHG-related composite indices. Cox regression, ROC analysis, and weighted quantile sum regression were adopted to explore CVD associations and predictive efficiency. RESULTS: During an 8-year median follow-up, 22.14% of participants developed CVD. Elevated baseline values, increased cumulative exposure, and unfavorable trajectories of composite indices were linked to higher CVD risk. Per 1-SD rise in baseline CHG-WC and CHG-CVAI corresponded to 19% and 17% higher CVD risk, respectively. Their addition produced statistically significant improvements in predictive performance and risk stratifying capacity of the Framingham Risk Score, as further supported by NRI and IDI analyses. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal trajectories and cumulative exposures of CHG-obesity composite indices serve as reliable independent predictors of CVD. Dynamic monitoring of these indicators facilitates early CVD risk stratification.

Source: Cardiovascular Therapeutics

DOI: 10.1155/cdr/1092234