Work

Climate change reshapes forest-type-specific climatic suitability for the Chinese Pangolin, Manis pentadactyla Linnaeus, 1758, in Guangdong Province, China

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The Chinese Pangolin, Manis pentadactyla , is a Critically Endangered mammal associated with forested landscapes in southern China. We used 461 field-based occurrence records and six bioclimatic predictors to model its relative climatic suitability in Guangdong Province. An optimized MaxEnt model was evaluated by spatial block validation (training AUC = 0.9116; validation AUC = 0.7731) and projected separately under three global climate models (GCMs) for SSP245 and SSP585 in 2081–2100. Predictions were then averaged within each scenario. At equal weight per 5-km grid × atlas-derived forest-type unit, mean suitability in coniferous forest areas declined from 0.2616 (Current) to 0.0289 (SSP245) and 0.0066 (SSP585); corresponding broad-leaved forest means declined from 0.2381 to 0.0525 and 0.0146. The descriptive broad-leaved-minus-coniferous contrast in mean change was 0.0470 under SSP245 and 0.0316 under SSP585. Both forest strata had lower projected suitability, but reliable inferential intervals for their difference were not established. Environmental predictors exceeded current calibration ranges across substantial areas, particularly under SSP585, so the magnitude and spatial pattern of future changes require caution. These projections concern relative climatic suitability in areas classified by the atlas-derived forest layer, not future forest composition, occurrence probability, or habitat quality.

Source: Nature Conservation

DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.66.215180