Epidemiological trends and outcomes of lung cancer in Kazakhstan: a 20-year population-based analysis
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Background Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related death in Kazakhstan. However, detailed population-based data on long-term trends in incidence, mortality, stage at diagnosis, and survival have been limited. We analyzed national lung cancer epidemiology over twenty years and examined both short- and long-term outcomes. Methods We conducted a nationwide, population-based analysis using the Electronic Cancer Registry of Kazakhstan. Incidence of lung cancer (International Classification of Diseases, 11th Revision [ICD-11] code 2C25) and related deaths were examined from 2005 to 2024. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (based on the WHO World Standard Population 2000–2025) were calculated separately for each sex. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression and expressed as the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). The stage distribution was assessed for 2011–2024, the period for which stage information became available. Survival rates were evaluated for incident cohorts from 2015 and 2020, with follow-up periods extending to 2020 and 2024, respectively. Kaplan–Meier methods and log-rank tests were used to compare survival across regions. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios. One-year mortality (2014–2024) and the proportion of non-cancer deaths among all one-year deaths were analyzed using official aggregated statistics. Results From 2005 to 2024, there were 73,710 registered lung cancer cases (80.0% male), and 54,186 deaths (81.5% male). The mean age- and sex-standardized incidence rate was 22.4 per 100,000, and the mortality rate was 16.6 per 100,000. Overall, incidence declined (AAPC −2.1%, p < 0.001), primarily among males, whereas incidence increased slightly among females. Mortality decreased significantly (overall AAPC −3.16%, p < 0.001), with male age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) dropping from 53.2 to 17.7 per 100,000 and female from 5.5 to 3.4 per 100,000. The stage distribution (2011–2024) shows a nonsignificant increase in early stages (+0.21 percentage points per year, p = 0.065), while stage III declined (−0.58 percentage points per year, p < 0.001), and stage IV increased (+0.37 percentage points per year, p < 0.001). Median survival was approximately 5 months in both cohorts; after adjustment for age, sex, and stage, regional differences in survival were significant only in the 2020 cohort. One-year mortality among patients with lung cancer declined from 56.5% in 2014 to 33.6% in 2024. However, among the same cohort, the proportion of deaths attributable to causes other than lung cancer increased from 23.7% to 43.4% ( p < 0.001). Conclusions Kazakhstan’s lung cancer rates have declined since 2005, especially among males, but most cases are still diagnosed late, resulting in low long-term survival.
Source: PeerJ
DOI: 10.7717/peerj.21967
Language: English
Subfield: Oncology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,395
OpenAlex ID: W7225756504