Energy-system bottlenecks to achieving Nationally Determined Contributions: evidence from the OMNIA model
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The 2023 Global Stocktake concluded that current mitigation efforts remain insufficient to keep the Paris Agreement temperature goal within reach, reinforcing the need for accelerated sectoral action. The 2035 round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) translates these signals into national targets, but their deliverability depends on structural features of each country’s energy system, including renewable resource endowments, demand dynamics, and exposure to international energy trade. These constraints are assessed using the open-access OMNIA global integrated assessment model (TIMES-based), developed under the Horizon Europe DIAMOND project, which represents the global energy system across 28 regions, with, amongst others, South Korea, the United States, and Canada modelled as stand-alone regions. The analysis imposes the NDC emissions trajectories plus long-term strategies net zero objectives at long term, complemented by country-specific constraints reflecting expected 2035 NDCs, and organises results around three recurring bottleneck classes illustrated through national case studies. South Korea exemplifies a power-sector-dominant transition under constrained domestic renewables, where rapid low-carbon capacity expansion must keep pace with accelerating end-use electrification. The United States highlights an adoption-rate and sectoral bottleneck in a large, diverse economy, requiring sustained high deployment rates across multiple sectors and tight synchronisation between power supply expansion and demand-side uptake. Canada illustrates an export-oriented fossil-production bottleneck, where upstream oil and gas, including methane and fugitive emissions, remain only weakly coupled to domestic demand-side mitigation, making targeted upstream regulation and incentives central to NDC deliverability.
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7225868558
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