Work

A generalised equilibrium model of random dynamics: analysing the impact of artificial intelligence and digital transformation on Vietnam’s long-term economic growth

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study develops an extended Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that integrates innovation, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital transformation into a macroeconomic framework for Vietnam. The model employs a parsimonious, single-channel architecture: three forms of rival capital (physical, digital, and AI) enter a single production function, while a non-rival knowledge stock drives endogenous total factor productivity. Calibrated using Vietnamese aggregate evidence and policy anchors for 2000–2024, supplemented by international proxy ranges, the model shows that sustained, institutionally supported investment in AI and digital transformation can raise long-run output and welfare. The magnitude of these conditional gains is moderate and depends strongly on institutional quality and public spending, while remaining quantitatively sensitive to selected knowledge and policy parameters.

Source: Cogent Economics & Finance

DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2026.2738314

Authors: Thanh Tung Phan, Minh N. Dao, Van Khanh Pham

Institutions: Thuongmai University, RMIT University, Viện Công nghệ thông tin, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Economic Growth and Productivity

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,165